Well, this is all a bit weird, isn’t it? For the second season in a row, we head into our final game of the season with our fate very much sealed.
Last season we finished on 56 points following a pathetic second half to the season and endured an equally pathetic 2-0 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday, who ultimately finished just three points behind Sunderland, despite accumulating just three points from their opening 12 games.
This time around, we have already bettered our points tally from the 2023-24 season to the tune of 20 points and sit fourth in the league with a 9-point gap on fifth placed Bristol City. So why do things feel equally as apathetic when we’ve objectively had a campaign that has considerably surpassed our pre-season expectations?
Firstly, it is important to note that even in the increasingly data driven world of football, the mood of the fans and the general vibe around the club remains a key factor and whether it is positive or negative, context is king.
To take a semi-recent example, Sunderland’s 04-05 title winning campaign was more impressive than Roy Keane’s 06-07 success in almost every conceivable metric.
Mick McCarthy’s band of cheaply assembled merry men finished on 94 points, compared to Keane’s 88, scored the same number of goals, had a better goal difference, conceded fewer goals, didn’t lose back-to-back games all season and after hitting the top of the league with seven games to go, did not fall away from top spot at any point.
Logically, you would expect the Stadium of Light to have been packed out every week as we motored towards the Championship title? Wrong.
In 2004-05 our average attendance was just 28,000 and even on the day we clinched promotion against Leicester City, just 34,815 were inside the SOL to witness it.
This was a fanbase who had the stuffing knocked out of it from a record low Premier League relegation in 2003 and due to the tight purse strings associated with the latter days of the Bob Murray era, combined with McCarthy’s functional brand of football, our impressive points total wasn’t sufficient to raise hopes ahead of the 05-06 campaign.
After finishing that season on an even more humiliating 15 points, Keane inherited a ship that was rapidly sinking and cut adrift at the bottom of the Championship and not only turned the ship around but lit a fire under the City of Sunderland.
From New Years Day until the end of the season, we lost just once and went from 12th to champions, winning an incredible 16 games out of a possible 20 with last minute goals aplenty, significant Drumaville investment combined with a charismatic football icon in the dugout and we were suddenly box office.
Our two most recent play off campaigns very much represent the Roy Keane vibe, under Alex Neil, after a stuttering start, we went on a 13-match unbeaten run and scored a series of late winners and even though we only secured a top six place on the final day, we had to produce title winning form to do so.
Under Tony Mowbray, in 22-23 we again only achieved our top six place in the last game of the season, and going into the second half our chances of getting promoted looked slim to none, but three second half goals apiece from Sunderland and Blackburn saw us clinch sixth place.
This came on the back of winning four of our last six games, and even though we only finished on 69 points, it almost felt like promotion was destined to happen as an injury ravaged squad produced a borderline miracle to not only get into the play offs but to beat Luton 2-1 in the first leg at the SOL.
I am one of many Sunderland fans that remain convinced we would’ve ended up being a Premier League side if we’d had just one fully fit natural centre-half that wasn’t called Joe Anderson.
This season, the feeling is very much more on the Mick McCarthy side of the argument, objectively we have had a very impressive season and later on in the article I will focus on a host of reasons to be positive, but I do understand some of the feelings of discontent.
Most importantly, losing is rubbish and as much as we should be very much used to that feeling by now, it is still rubbish and even if we rationally know that results are largely meaningless at this stage, when you devote a decent chunk of your weekend to following the match it still taints your mood somewhat.
I understand the logic of the approach Regis Le Bris has taken but I can empathise with those who are concerned by losing four games in a row, especially in light of our most recent performance against Oxford.
In the build up to the game RLB stated that the club was entering ‘play off mode’ and his team selection backed up those sentiments, what followed on the pitch was cause for concern as we turned in a performance that was insipid to say the least.
Again, I think people would be more accepting of our recent drop off in performances if they were off the back of emphatically securing our play off place with free flowing, attacking football but what we have seen is largely a more extreme version of what we have served up on a semi regular basis throughout the second half of the season.
Our home form is a particular cause for concern when compared to earlier in the season.
Following a 1-0 win over Portsmouth in early January we had achieved 31 points from a potential 39 in front of our own fans. Since then, we have taken just 12 points from a possible 27 and in those nine games have only scored 10 goals.
Worryingly, this is a downward trend over a decent sample size and the majority of our fixtures have been objectively kinder than they were during our fortress-like home form from the beginning of the season.
For a while now, our opponents have found a blueprint of frustrating us and sitting with a deep defensive line which we have struggled to break down before hitting us with a sucker punch.
This does not bode well for our second leg in a play off semi final where we could go into our home leg a goal down and under pressure to find our way through a low block.
So in summary, the vibes are not great, our form has fallen off a cliff and our home form has gone from the stuff of title winners to being genuine cause for concern.
However, as I pointed out at the start of the article, context is king whether we are looking for reasons to be optimistic or pessimistic.
Most fans acknowledge that if they were presented with our current scenario back in August, they would have been delighted, but I think it has also been forgotten just how impressive our season has been overall.
As we travelled to Cardiff for the opening day of the season, if you had said Eliezer Mayenda would play 38 games, we would sell Jack Clarke, we would play a significant chunk of the season without a natural left winger, and our star January signing would spend a significant spell on the side lines, people wouldn’t just be delighted, they’d probably be nominating Regis Le Bris for manager of the season.
In fairness, Le Bris was nominated for EFL manager of the season and both Jobe Bellingham and Chris Rigg scooped up awards in their respective categories.
I understand people’s criticisms of Le Bris, but I do think overall he has managed some difficult situations very well.
I mentioned Mayenda before, and I don’t think Le Bris’ man management of him has been talked about enough.
When we look at Mayenda now we see a confident, bustling striker who is a nightmare for defenders to mark and always positively impacts a game whether it’s from the start or from the bench, but it’s easy to forget the state of play less than 12 months ago.
Last season, the young forward played just twice during an ill fated loan spell at Hibernian, where a 37 year old Adam Le Fondre who now plies his trade for FC United of Manchester, was preferred over the Spaniard.
When Le Bris arrived there was no pre-judgement and from early on in pre-season identified Mayenda as the striker who would lead the line for us for the opening game against Cardiff and his faith has been repaid in full.
From the outside looking in it is difficult to assess the work of coaching staff, and sometimes both praise and criticism can be over the top.
For example, in the past 12 months, sections of the fanbase were furious when Mike Dodds did not leave the club when we appointed a new head coach, blamed him for having too much influence on our style of play when our goals dried up in late Autumn and now attribute our downturn in form to him leaving the club.
However, I think it is fair to say both our head coach and his staff deserve praise for turning us into a team who had forgotten how to play with a striker to Mayenda and Isidor having 27 goal involvements this season.
Our injuries have also played a huge part this season, Romaine Mundle and Tommy Watson being injured for large parts of our busiest period of the season in terms of fixtures was far from ideal and at differing times our injury list has been glaring.
Dennis Cirkin, Alan Browne, Aji Alese, Eliezer Mayenda, Dan Ballard, Enzo Le Fee, and Chris Mepham have all also had periods of unavailability and while I agree that we have at times not made enough substitutions, I feel there’s been valid reasons behind this.
Therefore, I think it is actually to Le Bris’s credit that despite the number of injuries and lack of reinforcements in January, we remain the highest finishing club not in receipt of parachute payments.
How many times this season have you looked at our bench and thought, ‘there’s no real option to change that if things aren’t working?’ I appreciate it is the role of the head coach to find solutions, but I do slightly reject the narrative that we should have rotated much more throughout the season.
A lack of depth isn’t the only factor, since beating Oxford 2-0 back in late October we have only won by more than one goal on one occasion, which means when your bench is depleted to start with, it is difficult to rotate the squad effectively when nearly every game you’ve played in has gone to the wire.
Of course, the counter to that is, play more exciting football and score more goals and I accept that to a degree, but I think aside from recent weeks we have actually created more than enough chances to go more than a goal up but a lack of a clinical edge has meant that later on in games we’ve naturally sat back more as a result.
It is this lack of rotation options and excessive minutes played by such a young squad, that is the strongest vindicating factor in Le Bris’ recent team selections.
We have earned the right to be in this position by securing our spot so early, while the teams in 5th and 6th will have to exert themselves fully until the last kick of the last day to earn their place in the playoffs.
We, on the other hand have had the opportunity to have a mini pre-season in the build up to our play-off campaign at the same time as welcoming back the likes of Cirkin and Mundle.
After a full pre-season, Le Bris got us to peak perfectly at the start of the season, and I think he has earned our trust to replicate this when the play-offs get under way.
Although it is worrying that we have gone from amongst the league’s top scorers to being 8th in the league for goals scored, it remains heartening that we have the fourth best defensive record in the league.
In fact, defeats against Coventry and Oxford are the only two occasions where we have lost by more than a single goal this season.
Even though our home form has taken a dip since the turn of the year, it still remains the fifth best in the division and our away form is the fourth best.
But how do we turn the vibes around? Well, for a start beating QPR, preferably by more than a goal would help.
Just for the players and the crowd to have a moment of celebration again, get applauded off and the fans to head into the Wearside sunshine with their pints tasting that bit better and people having a spring in their step talking about the play-offs.
In truth, I don’t think there will be much of an issue in terms of supporters getting up for those games, recently on social media fans were sharing videos and photos from the Sheffield Wednesday and Wycombe games and reflecting on the atmosphere and the occasion.
This in itself was enough to get the nervous anticipation pumping and people to reflect on what an amazing few weeks that was for the club and the desperation to do it all again shone through.
Recent results have been far from ideal, but this has been a very good season overall, and it could still have the most magical of endings.
Ha’way the Lads!
